https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/ Charts, papers, articles and tweets that drew Dror Poleg's attention, newest first. en https://www.drorpoleg.com/charts/btos-ai/ https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/nearly-a-quarter-of-american-firms-now-use-ai/ Fri, 23 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Source: Firms using AI https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.24267v1 https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/robots-could-reach-the-low-wage-jobs-generative-ai-barely-touches/ Fri, 23 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Researchers from MIT and NYU used an AI model to score 16 robot capabilities against 52 O*NET work abilities, rating robotics exposure for 774 occupations, 250 industries and US counties. “Unlike generative-AI exposure, ROE is higher in occupations with lower wages, lower education requirements, and less creative-ability content.” — Sebastian Sartor, Robert Seamans, Neil Thompson Source: How exposed is work to robotics? Occupational, industry, and geographic measures https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.27296v1 https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/each-ai-breakthrough-uses-up-its-own-ideas-faster/ Fri, 23 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Researchers from Tsinghua University and the University of Chicago tracked 7.2 million computer-science papers, 73,089 peer reviews and 3.7 million researchers over 36 years. Source: Stronger artificial intelligence breakthroughs hasten their own exhaustion https://newsletter.drorpoleg.com/p/slop-is-the-new-oil https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/slop-is-the-new-oil/ Fri, 23 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Across the economy, waste is no longer a byproduct. It's the fuel. Source: https://newsletter.drorpoleg.com/p/slop-is-the-new-oil https://thenextweb.com/news/intel-cto-ranade-dwarkesh-chip-tools-2x-not-10x https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/ai-compute-triples-yearly-but-chip-factories-can-barely-double/ Fri, 23 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “Ranade said output could only rise faster if every supplier did too. “Unless everybody produces more, you can’t increase the output,” he said, naming equipment suppliers, their suppliers and their sub-suppliers.” — Pushkar Ranade Source: Intel CTO tells Dwarkesh Patel the world lacks tools to 10x chip output https://www.anthropic.com/research/formal-verification https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/ai-is-turning-formal-software-verification-from-niche-to-routine/ Fri, 23 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “Using Claude, we proved security properties at the assembly code level (RISC-V) in over 100 real-world open-source software libraries.” — Anthropic Source: LLMs are making formal software verification feasible at a much larger scale https://x.com/drorpoleg/status/2113256654409978027 https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/fun-fact-in-1980-the-u-s-prepared-to-use-tactical-nukes-to-secure-the/ Fri, 23 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Fun fact: In 1980, the U.S. prepared to use tactical nukes to secure the Straight of Hormuz from a Soviet invasion. https://www.noemamag.com/the-end-of-upward-mobility/ https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/sixty-percent-of-american-households-get-nothing-from-capital/ Fri, 23 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Sixty percent of American households have zero or negligible cash income from capital ownership; capital income's Gini is about twice that of disposable income; the top 1% of capitalists got nearly $100,000 per person in 2022. Source: The End Of Upward Mobility https://www.drorpoleg.com/the-irony-of-automation/#:~:text=After%20all%2C%20our%20attention,for%20its%20own%20interests%3F https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/after-all-our-attention-and-passions-are-already-manipulated-by/ Thu, 22 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “After all, our attention and passions are already manipulated by software all day long. Today, it is done in the service of for-profit tech companies and governments. Is it such a leap to expect software to continue to do so for its own interests?” — Dror Poleg, The Irony of Automation. https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/72628f1863c53432195db83279252dfd2cb53158/Employment%20at%20Anthropic.pdf#page=3 https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/at-five-years-old-anthropic-takes-in-between-2-4-times-as-much-revenue/ Thu, 22 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “At five years old, Anthropic takes in between 2–4 times as much revenue per employee as Meta and Google as they crested in their own rapid growth.” — Nathan Wilmers et al., How Employment is Changing at Anthropic. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/10/22/men-are-experiencing-more-job-growth-than-women-in-ai-exposed-occupations/ https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/ai-exposed-jobs-are-growing-for-men-and-standing-still-for-women/ Thu, 22 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “This analysis finds that for each 1-point increase in an occupation’s AI exposure score, men’s employment grew by 6.3%, while women’s employment barely changed (0.2%).” — Nicole Smith Source: Men Are Experiencing More Job Growth Than Women in AI-Exposed Occupations https://www.drorpoleg.com/charts/qwi-job-change-by-firm-age/ https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/only-new-firms-are-still-adding-jobs/ Thu, 22 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Source: Who Actually Creates Jobs? https://x.com/drorpoleg/status/2113048117805273414 https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/this-isnt-just-about-art-its-about-most-human-work-more-of-our-work/ Thu, 22 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT This isn't just about art; it's about most human work: More of our "work" will consist of performing tasks, even though these tasks can be "streamed" from a server. (quoting Joey Politano 🏳️‍🌈: an argument that musicians survived streaming by shifting to live concerts) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-10-15/-vanishing-japan-by-naomi-pollock-spotlights-architecture-of-post-war-japan?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc5MjY2Nzg2NSwiZXhwIjoxNzkzMjcyNjY1LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUTVlWTzVSS1YyVFEwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJENTk3ODI1NEYzQTE0ODBBOTlFN0U0MTkyQjI5NDJDMSJ9.cVg0VYVhxSFccS7-1kZKe3niUVNipoqIxO3KID8Kv9s https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/japans-post-war-architectural-masterpieces-are-vanishing/ Thu, 22 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Source: Japan's Post-War Architectural Masterpieces Are Vanishing https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-introduces-dsx-pod-ai-factories-to-accelerate-europes-infrastructure-deployment?ncid=so-twit-445120 https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/ai-data-centers-are-turning-into-prefab-shipping-containers/ Thu, 22 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “The units arrive ready to connect out of the box to a prepared site’s power, cooling, networking and other supporting infrastructure, reducing deployment time from six months to as little as 14 days.” — NVIDIA Source: NVIDIA Introduces DSX POD AI Factories to Accelerate Europe’s Infrastructure Deployment https://iiif.library.cmu.edu/file/Simon_box00064_fld04898_bdl0001_doc0001/Simon_box00064_fld04898_bdl0001_doc0001.pdf https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/in-1960-herbert-simon-saw-the-automated-executive-coming/ Thu, 22 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Herbert A. Simon, writing in a 1960 McGraw-Hill volume, used the doctrine of comparative advantage to forecast how computers would reshape management by 1985. “First, the business organization in 1985 will be a highly auto­ mated man-machine system, and the nature of management will surely be conditioned by the character of the system being managed.” — Herbert A. Simon Source: The Corporation: Will It Be Managed by Machines? https://www.adpresearch.com/research/canaries-dashboard-employment-in-ai-exposed-occupations-shrank-in-september https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/entry-level-jobs-exposed-to-ai-keep-vanishing-while-the-rest-grow/ Wed, 21 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “For this age group, employment in jobs with high exposure to AI shrank by 3.7 percent, marking 36 straight months of year-over-year contraction, a trend that began in October 2023, 12 months after the initial public release of ChatGPT.” — Nela Richardson, Ph.D. Source: Canaries Dashboard: Employment in AI-exposed occupations shrank in September https://stevekrouse.com/ends#:~:text=It%20has%20been%20a,staying%20power%20of%20schools%21 https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/edison-gave-schools-ten-years-in-1913-ai-prophets-rhyme/ Wed, 21 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Edison told a 1913 paper the school system would be completely changed inside of ten years. A programmer who once predicted MOOCs would upend education notes that technologists wrongly doubting schools has its own staying power. “It has been a surprisingly good bet that schools will continue to exist in roughly their current form for many years to come. Ironically, there also seems to be some staying power to technologists boldly (and so far incorrectly) doubting the staying power of schools!” Source: What Shall I Teach My Son? https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/72628f1863c53432195db83279252dfd2cb53158/Employment%20at%20Anthropic.pdf#page=7 https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/output-per-person-rose-and-adopters-produced-more/ Wed, 21 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT The authors follow 192 engineers who adopted coding agents against 74 who did not, and find no difference in how often agent-written code is later removed or reverted. Source: How Employment is Changing at Anthropic https://www.drorpoleg.com/the-irony-of-automation/ https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/the-irony-of-automation/ Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT A.I. might "liberate" most humans to do jobs that are less meaningful and entail limited agency. It'll be more fun than it sounds. Source: https://www.drorpoleg.com/the-irony-of-automation/ https://www.inss.org.il/he/publication/workshop-israeli-palestinian-conflict/ https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/in-ai-war-games-managing-the-palestinian-conflict-drifts-to-one-state/ Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Source: International experts - and AI agents: first insights from a workshop on deciphering the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (Translated from Hebrew) https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/72628f1863c53432195db83279252dfd2cb53158/Employment%20at%20Anthropic.pdf#page=3 https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/anthropic-hires-less-per-dollar-than-young-google-and-meta-did/ Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT At five years old, Anthropic takes in between 2–4 times as much revenue per employee as Meta and Google did at the same age. “At five years old, Anthropic takes in between 2–4 times as much revenue per employee as Meta and Google as they crested in their own rapid growth.” Source: How Employment is Changing at Anthropic https://www.drorpoleg.com/the-irony-of-automation/ https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/the-last-human-jobs-serving-maintaining-and-lending-legitimacy/ Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Humans keep roles machines can't or are too busy for: serving other humans, creating content, maintaining physical infrastructure, and finally lending legitimacy to machines, as Foundation's emperor-fronts do for a robot ruler. Source: The Irony of Automation https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-banning-chinese-ai-deepseek-government-agency-it-systems-2026-10-19/ https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/deepseek-banned-from-u-s-federal-civilian-agencies-under-new-dhs-order/ Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Source: DeepSeek banned from U.S. federal civilian agencies under new DHS order https://static1.squarespace.com/static/644321e78cd2dd37613af33e/t/6694873f71612132a84371c7/1721009983702/Ironies+of+Automation_Bainbridge_1983.pdf https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/watching-machines-turns-expert-operators-back-into-novices/ Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Lisanne Bainbridge of University College London examined how automating process plants and flight decks changes the tasks and skills left to human operators. “Unfortunately, physical skills deteriorate when they are not used, particularly the refinements of gain and timing. This means that a formerly experienced operator who has been monitoring an automated process may now be an inexperienced one.” — Lisanne Bainbridge Source: Ironies of Automation https://vals.ai/blogs/routers-new-ai-primitive https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/mixing-ai-models-can-beat-the-best-one-at-40-less-cost/ Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “To measure by how much, we calculated the performance of an oracle router, one that picks the perfect model for every task in hindsight. On the Vals Index, that oracle would beat the best single model by 14 points while costing about 40% less.” — Vaibhav Mahajan Source: Routers Are a New AI Primitive https://www.nbcnews.com/world/ukraine/ukraine-first-drone-evacuation-wounded-soldier-frontlines-hexacopter-rcna604310 https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/drones-are-now-evacuating-soldiers-where-ground-robots-cant-go/ Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “The craft was a heavy-lift hexacopter, it said, originally designed as a bomber by a Ukrainian manufacturer. It looks about twice the size of the soldier in the video.” — Yuliya Talmazan Source: Ukraine claims world’s first drone evacuation of wounded soldier https://x.com/AndrewCurran_/status/2112589066294481159 https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/musks-spacex-share-giveaway-could-extend-to-every-american-under-40/ Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “Trump Accounts may soon be expanded to include any American citizen under 40 with a Social Security Number. So if you are under 40, you may be eligible for the SpaceX shares Elon will start to donate next year. If you are over 40, I'm afraid you get bupkis.” — Andrew Curran (@AndrewCurran_) on X. https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/72628f1863c53432195db83279252dfd2cb53158/Employment%20at%20Anthropic.pdf https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/at-anthropic-juniors-are-a-shrinking-share-of-tech-hires/ Mon, 19 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Juniors' share of technical hires fell from 27% to 9%, and their share of technical staff from 21% to 14% since early 2025. “Figure 1 shows that the share of junior-level employees in technical departments at Anthropic slipped from 21% to 14% since early 2025. The proportion of junior technical hires fell even faster, from 27% to 9%.” Source: How Employment is Changing at Anthropic https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/72628f1863c53432195db83279252dfd2cb53158/Employment%20at%20Anthropic.pdf https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/claude-sessions-amount-to-around-80-idly-waiting-for-human-input-as-one/ Mon, 19 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “Claude sessions amount to around 80% idly waiting for human input. As one engineer put it, people are “bottlenecking the agents.”” — Nathan Wilmers et al., How Employment is Changing at Anthropic. https://bit.ly/4ykiQFe https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/tech-apprenticeships-in-the-st-louis-feds-district-fell-nearly-60/ Mon, 19 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “The most pronounced decline was among occupations in computers and math, which saw active apprenticeships decrease almost 60% between 2021 and 2025.” — Nishesh Chalise Source: Exploring Apprenticeship Growth during the Past Two Economic Expansions https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/data-centers-are-propping-up-investment-not-crowding-it-out/ Mon, 19 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “From 2023 Q2 to 2026 Q2, real tech investment rose about 46%, while other real investment rose about 3%. Other investment has weakened since its 2024 peak, but it remains above its starting level.” — Alex Tabarrok Source: No, DataCenters are Not Crowding-Out Other Investments https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/datacenters-2027-the-year-of-acceleration https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/2027-could-add-as-much-datacenter-capacity-as-the-world-built-by-2024/ Mon, 19 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “To be fair, +50GW is essentially the global cumulative datacenter market up through 2024 being built in one year! But our Datacenter Industry Model adjusts for all of that and still points to a material acceleration in datacenter capacity in 2027.” — Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Reyk Knuhtsen, and Dylan Patel Source: Datacenters 2027: The Year of Acceleration, +50GW in a Single Year https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/anthropics-proposed-ai-safety-bill-only-kicks-in-if-50-deaths-or-usd1-billion-in-damages-are-on-the-line-proposal-would-effectively-make-the-commerce-department-the-only-agency-capable-of-stopping-an-ai-model https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/anthropics-ai-safety-bill-only-bites-at-50-deaths-or-1-billion/ Mon, 19 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Source: Anthropic’s proposed AI safety bill only kicks in if 50 deaths or $1 billion in damages are on the line — proposal would effectively make the Commerce Department the only agency capable of stopping an AI model https://www.wired.com/story/book-publishers-are-quietly-using-more-ai-staff-are-revolting/ https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/at-harpercollins-senior-leaders-purchased-claude-licenses-from/ Mon, 19 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “At HarperCollins senior leaders purchased Claude licenses from Anthropic months ago “but very quickly realized they didn’t know how to implement them,” according to a current employee. Dozens of junior- and senior-level staff were then “voluntold” to become “AI Champions” and were tasked with discovering use cases in monthly brainstorming sessions with staff across the company.” — Adam Morgan, Book Publishers Are Quietly Using More AI. Staff Are Revolting. https://asteriskmag.substack.com/p/why-cant-technologists-and-economists https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/why-cant-technologists-and-economists-agree-on-ai/ Mon, 19 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Source: Why can’t technologists and economists agree on AI? https://www.anthropic.com/research/ai-expectations-gap#footnote-5 https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/anthropic-staff-expect-ai-to-do-three-quarters-of-their-work-by-2030/ Mon, 19 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “Second, there are sharp differences concerning people's own jobs. On average, staff members expect AI to be able to do 75% of their current work by 2030, compared to 28% for US workers overall.” — Szymon Sacher and others Source: The AI expectations gap https://www.mercor.com/research/labor-index/benchmark-map/ https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/nobody-knows-how-good-ai-is-at-most-of-the-work-americans-do/ Sun, 18 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “In our data set: only 208 of 923 occupations have a task with at least 5 benchmark prompts , and 6 of 22 job families have no such occupations.” — Mercor Source: A benchmark map of the US economy https://x.com/drorpoleg/status/2111132675897794820 https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/there-is-a-huge-market-for-the-absolute-best-ai-and-several-reasons-why/ Sun, 18 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT There is a huge market for the absolute best AI. And several reasons why Big Tech may not capture it. https://newsletter.drorpoleg.com/p/the-bull-case-for-anthropic-and-openai https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2111564306282123758 https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/new-york-is-losing-restaurants-faster-than-during-the-pandemic/ Sun, 18 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “BREAKING: The number of restaurants in New York dropped ~2,000 YoY in Q1 2026, posting its largest YoY decline in at least 36 years. This surpasses even the worst contraction recorded in any quarter during the 2020 pandemic. The number of eating and drinking places in New York State has now declined YoY for 4 consecutive quarters, its longest streak since 2021. This comes as restaurants are facing surging operating expenses, including insurance premiums, wages, interest rates, utilities, and health coverage, with overall costs rising faster than national averages. Last year, employee health insurance costs jumped +12.9% for New York-area service firms, business insurance rose +7.0%, while utility costs surged +8.5%, according to the Manhattan Chamber of Commerce. Skyrocketing costs are crushing New York restaurants.” — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) on X. https://www.ft.com/content/5a310aee-f555-4266-874c-b1b4db20186d https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/anthropic-assigned-highest-junk-credit-rating-in-june/ Sun, 18 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Source: Anthropic assigned highest junk credit rating in June https://x.com/a16z/status/2111536578338378169 https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/the-dot-com-bubble-left-fiber-dark-today-every-gpu-is-running-hot/ Sun, 18 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “Gavin Baker on the other side of Ben's bandwidth story: at the peak of the 2000 bubble, 97% of America's fiber sat dark, and today there are no dark GPUs. "I had, depending on how you look at it, the privilege and the misfortune of being a tech investor during the year 2000 bubble, which was really a telecom bubble." "The year 2000 bubble was defined by something called 'dark fiber.' Dark fiber was literally fiber that was laid down in the ground, and not lit up... At the peak of the bubble, 97% of the fiber that had been laid in America was dark." "Contrast that with today. There are no dark GPUs. All you have to do is read any technical paper, and one of the biggest problems in a training run is that GPUs are melting." @GavinSBaker” — a16z (@a16z) on X. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/09/29/solar-surpasses-nuclear-power-globally-for-first-time/ https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/solar-now-makes-more-electricity-than-the-worlds-nuclear-plants/ Sun, 18 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “Meanwhile, the world’s operating nuclear fleet increased output by 1.1% – with output declining outside China – while global solar power generation jumped by a stunning 30%, surpassing nuclear’s annual electricity production for the first time.” — Mycle Schneider Source: Solar surpasses nuclear power globally for first time https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/10/16/the-gender-gap-in-ai/ https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/women-have-caught-up-with-men-on-chatbot-use/ Sun, 18 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “A similar share of men and women now report using AI chatbots. This is a shift from two years ago, when men were 11 percentage points more likely than women to say this.” — Monica Anderson and Eugenie Park Source: The Gender Gap in AI https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/introducing-private-credit-into-the-financial-accounts-of-the-united-states-20261016.html https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/us-private-debt-funds-have-grown-fivefold-since-2012/ Sun, 18 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Federal Reserve Board economists built balance sheets for private debt funds and other private credit vehicles from confidential SEC Form PF data, covering 2012 to 2025. Source: FEDS Note: Introducing Private Credit into the Financial Accounts of the United States https://www.anthropic.com/research/expectations-for-the-future https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/anthropic-staff-expect-ai-to-do-most-of-their-work-by-2030/ Sun, 18 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT “More than half of Anthropic staff expect AI to be able to do at least 80% of their current work by 2030; only 5% of Americans expect AI to be that capable.” — Anthropic Source: Working at the frontier shapes expectations for the future https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.18921v1 https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/ai-designs-better-games-than-human-creatives-even-professionals/ Fri, 16 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Economists from Ohio State and Carnegie Mellon ran three experiments with 1,025 US participants who designed games with an AI coding agent and bought each other's games. “Games designed by an AI on its own outperform those of human producers, including both amateurs and professional creatives.” — John Conlon and Peter Schwardmann Source: Creative destruction: Human-AI competition in an experimental market https://x.com/drorpoleg/status/2110902320481636619 https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/its-useful-to-think-of-frontier-labs-as-a-protection-racket-many-use/ Fri, 16 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT It’s useful to think of frontier labs as a protection racket. Many use cases can settle for “good enough” models from other vendors. But cyber defense alone is worth spending a decent % of GDP on a protective swarm of the absolute best models. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.14145v1 https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/openai-and-anthropic-need-up-to-2-79-trillion-a-year-to-earn-their/ Fri, 16 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT A University of Poitiers researcher ran reverse cash-flow calculations on OpenAI's and Anthropic's 2026 funding-round valuations and mapped public deals that go beyond selling model access. “Treating the announced financing prices as hypothetical operating-value targets, reverse cash-flow calculations for OpenAI and Anthropic yield combined year-ten revenue requirements of $2.79 trillion or $733 billion, depending on financial assumptions.” — Andrew J. Peterson Source: Is the business of frontier AI companies selling tokens? Value capture and equity prices https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.16733 https://www.drorpoleg.com/signals/ai-agents-solve-expert-level-physics-problems-for-under-3-each/ Fri, 16 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Researchers from ICTS, Tata Institute, Harvard, Google DeepMind and others tested off-the-shelf AI agents on 50 unpublished, research-level theoretical physics problems with verifiable answers. Source: TheoPhysEval: Assessing AI agents at autonomous theoretical physics problem solving