Card Delinquency Rose Without a Jobs Shock, Then Eased
The share of credit card loans at U.S. commercial banks that are delinquent, from the Federal Reserve Board, beside the unemployment rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, quarterly since 1991. It shows card delinquency nearly doubling from near its record low in early 2022 to mid-2024, past its 2019 level, while unemployment stayed near 4%, then easing for two years even as joblessness edged up. It covers commercial banks only, and measures balances rather than borrowers.
What does it show?
From 1.69% in early 2022, near its record low, card delinquency nearly doubled to 3.22% by mid-2024 with unemployment flat near 4%, past its 2019 level of 2.6%; it has since eased for 8 quarters to 2.85%, still above the 2.5% seen at similar unemployment in 2017.
Methodology
Delinquency rate on credit card loans at all U.S. commercial banks (Federal Reserve Board, Charge-Off and Delinquency Rates on Loans and Leases at Commercial Banks; FRED DRCCLACBS): delinquent card loans, as the Board's release defines them, as a percent of card loans, seasonally adjusted, end of quarter. Civilian unemployment rate (BLS Employment Situation; FRED UNRATE), seasonally adjusted, averaged over the three months of each quarter; 2025-Q4 averages the 2 months FRED reports (it shows no value for 2025-10). Both are plotted in percent on one axis, from 1991-Q1, when the delinquency series begins, to 2026-Q3 for unemployment and 2026-Q2 for delinquency. The shaded span (2022-Q1 to 2024-Q2) marks the rise from 1.69% to 3.22% while quarterly unemployment went from 3.87% to 3.97%. That rise began near the series' record low (1.53% in 2021-Q3) and passed the 2019 average of 2.58% (at 3.67% unemployment), so part of it was a return to the pre-pandemic level. The level link between the two is loose: their correlation over 1991 to 2019 is +0.29, and in 1998-1999, at 4.4% unemployment, card delinquency averaged 4.7%, against 2.5% in 2017 at 4.4%, so the chart compares paths rather than fitting a model. Commercial banks only: card loans held by credit unions and nonbanks are not covered, and the rate is a share of balances, not of borrowers. Data via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; no endorsement implied.