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Signals I’m Watching

Dror Poleg@drorpoleg · Oct 5, 2026

“Let them eat ChatGPT” (while the elite consume Claude)

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FEDS Notes (Federal Reserve Board) · Oct 2, 2026Paper

Goods still drive the US economy, even as factory jobs vanish

Ryan Decker of the Federal Reserve Board studied U.S. goods production by tracking how a measure of "goods GDP," built from inventory and investment, moves over the business cycle.

“In this note, I highlight several underappreciated—though not necessarily novel—facts about U.S. goods production, arguing that physical goods remain a driving force in the U.S. economy and, perhaps, have not lost as much importance as the most closely watched indicators might suggest.”

Beyond the factory gate: The continued importance of goods production →

Ryan A. Decker

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Past Predictions

2023· May 26

“Can [Nvidia] be worth five trillion in five years? I think it has a decent shot.”
Markets·Podcast

2020· Jul 17

“Have you been following the evolution of AI and GPT-3?... So many things will change over the next few years!”
AI·Twitter / X

2023· Mar 27

“Tech skills will continue to be in high demand. But tech jobs will become less safe... When everyone can build software, many average or less creative programmers will suddenly face intense competition.”
Work·Essay

2019

“Technological innovation might lead to dramatic growth in economic activity and corporate profits while simultaneously reducing overall demand for office space.”
Real estate·Book

2020· Mar 3

“America is in complete denial about #Covid_19... expect more bad news to come once we catch up to reality.”
Society·Twitter / X

2020· Jul 3

“Buildings in many traditional employment districts will have to compete more fiercely and many of them will ultimately have to be repurposed.”
Cities·Essay

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